Intelligence
EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST
Annual Inflation
Experimental forecast — not an official BRH or IHSI projection.
Forecast evidence: Stronger
- Available history
- 74
- Minimum training history
- 36
- Minimum history for validation
- 37
- Backtest origins
- 12
- Observed
- Forecast
- 80% prediction interval
- 95% prediction interval
Prediction interval unavailable for this model.
Forecast
Forecast values and prediction intervals
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 18.182 | — | — | — | — |
Validated Model Performance
Exponential Smoothing
Meaningfully outperformed the naive baseline.
MAE0.97
RMSE1.453
sMAPE3.784%
MASE0.508
Model comparison
Model comparison
| Selected model | MAE | RMSE | sMAPE | MASE | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| naive | 1.492 | 1.811 | 5.803% | 0.778 | 12 |
| seasonal_naive | 4.825 | 5.456 | 18.937% | 2.519 | 12 |
| drift | 1.47 | 1.828 | 5.725% | 0.767 | 12 |
| autoreg | 1.029 | 1.516 | 4.012% | 0.54 | 12 |
| ets ★ | 0.97 | 1.453 | 3.784% | 0.508 | 12 |
| arima | 1.062 | 1.461 | 4.194% | 0.555 | 12 |
Forecast details
Forecast details
Forecast accuracy can deteriorate sharply during structural breaks, policy changes, political disruptions, natural disasters, or other events absent from historical patterns.
View forecasting methodology →Training period2020-05-01 — 2026-06-30
Generated atAug 27, 2026, 4:54 PM
Latest data period2026-06-30
Data vintageAug 26, 2026, 1:54 PM
Evaluation modelatest revision
Reproducibility hashb3f1cd8609d694bcda56e3f7a238e5782f5f149dfd04f8d701b3d9d9fcc50240
Experimental forecast — not an official BRH or IHSI projection.